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href="javascript:;">正文</a> </div> <div id="7wgc9ej" class="clearfix"> <div id="e4mipme" class="column-810 l"> <div id="s9buecy" class="detail-title"> 日本央行或?qū)⒓涌旒酉⒉椒? </div> <div id="2unzjay" class="detail-info"> <span>來源：21世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)道</span><span>作者：特約評(píng)論員黃亞南</span><span>2026-01-30 07:42</span> </div> <div id="mzvrvk0" class="detail-content-wrapper"> <div id="dpng3lc" class="social-bar"> <div id="vkcw2wo" class="tt">點(diǎn)贊</div> <div id="gztk4qk" class="like like-btn " data-id="3620929" data-url="/operation/like.html"></div> <div id="gx2cwnu" class="fav post-btn " data-id="3620929" data-url="/operation/collect.html" ></div> <a class="comment" href="#comment"></a> <div id="8cv7sle" class="tt">分享</div> <div id="smjd9jf" class="share-popup social-share" data-initialized="true" data-title="日本央行或?qū)⒓涌旒酉⒉椒? data-description="日本央行或?qū)⒓涌旒酉⒉椒? data-image="" data-url="https://h5.stcn.com/pages/detail/detail?id=3620929&jump_type=reported_info" > <a class="social-share-icon icon-wechat wx"></a> <a class="social-share-icon icon-qzone qq"></a> <a class="social-share-icon icon-weibo wb"></a> </div> </div> <div id="f47xxtn" class="detail-content"> <div id="ixrg49a" class="article-original-title">（原標(biāo)題：21評(píng)論丨日本央行或?qū)⒓涌旒酉⒉椒ィ?/div> <script src="https://static-web.stcn.com/static/scripts/echarts.min.js"></script><p>1月28日，日本央行公布了去年12月貨幣決策會(huì)議的紀(jì)要。這份紀(jì)要顯示了日本央行有繼續(xù)加息的準(zhǔn)備，也吐露了他們備受政策干擾的無(wú)奈。</p><p>在去年12月貨幣決策會(huì)議上，日本央行做了政策利率上調(diào)的決策。從這次公布的會(huì)議記要上可知，基于“工資和物價(jià)逐步上漲的機(jī)制得到維持下去的可能性比較高”的共識(shí)，9名決策會(huì)議成員一致同意把日本政策利率從0.5%上調(diào)到0.75。但是，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為日本央行的決定不僅有失時(shí)機(jī)，而且步伐太小，決策會(huì)議成員中也有人指出，雖然把政策利率上調(diào)到0.75%，但考慮到物價(jià)變動(dòng)等因素，日本的實(shí)際利率還是處在大幅度的負(fù)利率狀態(tài)。所以，盡管日本央行決定加息，但還是沒有止住日元貶值的趨勢(shì)。</p><p>實(shí)際上，決策會(huì)議成員中也有人有這樣的認(rèn)識(shí)：不僅0.75%的政策利率幾乎對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)和物價(jià)沒有什么影響，而且離中立的利率水平還有很大的一段距離。所以，要求在今后每幾個(gè)月就要加息一次。不過，這種意見由于不是多數(shù)意見而沒有被采納。</p><p><img src="https://stcn-main.oss-cn-shenzhen.aliyuncs.com/upload/wechat/20260130/20260130073833_697bef79dc4a3.png" title=""/></p><p>日本央行雖然也認(rèn)識(shí)到繼續(xù)加息的必要性，但迫于政治局勢(shì)的變化，認(rèn)為需要在了解“工資和物價(jià)逐步上漲的機(jī)制”的穩(wěn)定性后才能判斷，所以，不同意明確今后加息的時(shí)間，而只能表示在今后的決策會(huì)議上根據(jù)當(dāng)時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融情況來仔細(xì)考察，再做出決定。</p><p>根據(jù)這份紀(jì)要，日本央行當(dāng)時(shí)也曾經(jīng)討論過中立利率問題，但大多數(shù)會(huì)議成員認(rèn)為事先確定中立利率的水平非常困難，他們能做的只有把中立利率的幅度擴(kuò)大。所以，在去年12月決策會(huì)議后的記者會(huì)上，日本央行行長(zhǎng)植田和男沒有涉及提高中立利率水平的具體話題。不過，在會(huì)議上還是有人指出，考慮到物價(jià)變動(dòng)因素的實(shí)際中立利率也就是自然利率，可能在日本政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策起到效果后而得到提升。這也意味著，日本央行認(rèn)識(shí)到其政策利率與市場(chǎng)的希望有所脫節(jié)。</p><p>實(shí)際上，日本央行在去年12月的加息，已經(jīng)是錯(cuò)失了去年10月加息時(shí)機(jī)后的“補(bǔ)救”，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)在新上臺(tái)的高市政府積極擴(kuò)張的財(cái)政政策影響下，呈現(xiàn)出日元繼續(xù)貶值和國(guó)債價(jià)格繼續(xù)下跌的局面。所以，有會(huì)議成員提醒道，日本央行必須密切關(guān)注政府的財(cái)政政策的展開和通脹的動(dòng)態(tài)，不能掉以輕心，同時(shí)，還需要充分考慮到日元貶值給物價(jià)上漲帶來的壓力。因?yàn)樵谌赵H值和國(guó)債收益率上升的背景中，過低的政策利率是造成通脹的一個(gè)原因，而央行的持續(xù)加息有助于緩解未來的通脹壓力，調(diào)控國(guó)債收益率。這也意味著，日本央行已經(jīng)意識(shí)到繼續(xù)加息的必要性。</p><p>這份紀(jì)要還記錄了數(shù)名會(huì)議成員有這樣的認(rèn)識(shí)，即今后隨著食品價(jià)格上漲所造成的影響減弱，日本實(shí)際薪資有可能出現(xiàn)正的增長(zhǎng)，而這樣的增長(zhǎng)最快在2026年上半年就能實(shí)現(xiàn)。無(wú)疑，這樣的認(rèn)識(shí)也為日本央行盡早加息提供了積極的參考資料。</p><p>去年12月份的貨幣政策會(huì)議紀(jì)要，顯示了日本央行基于對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的判斷而準(zhǔn)備繼續(xù)加息的姿態(tài)，但今后，日本央行能不能穩(wěn)步地落實(shí)加息舉措，還需要考慮其能否排除日本政府的政策干擾。實(shí)際上，日本突然舉行的全國(guó)大選也限制了日本央行的決策。在今年1月23日決策會(huì)議后的記者會(huì)上，植田和男只能強(qiáng)調(diào)日本央行保持獨(dú)立性的重要意義，希望給市場(chǎng)帶來積極的信號(hào)。但這種信號(hào)還是曖昧不清，并沒有起到穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)的作用。在記者會(huì)結(jié)束后，日元匯率一度跌到1美元兌換159日元。</p><p>然而始料不及的是在同一天的美國(guó)外匯市場(chǎng)上，日元匯率突然從158日元急劇上升到155日元。顯然這不是日本央行決策帶來的效應(yīng)，而是因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)上傳聞美國(guó)不允許美元進(jìn)一步下跌，妨礙美國(guó)企業(yè)的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，尤其是擔(dān)心日本高市政府的積極財(cái)政政策導(dǎo)致日元和債券進(jìn)一步貶值，從而對(duì)美國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)帶來負(fù)面影響。市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為，如果日元匯率突破1美元兌換160日元，日本政府就會(huì)進(jìn)行市場(chǎng)干預(yù)。而美國(guó)對(duì)匯率態(tài)度的轉(zhuǎn)變，會(huì)使這樣的干預(yù)更有效果。所以，日元沒有繼續(xù)貶值，主要是受到國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境變化的影響。市場(chǎng)揣測(cè)，美國(guó)政府有可能用促使美元貶值來代替現(xiàn)有的關(guān)稅政策，這也可以使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)因通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低而繼續(xù)降息，另外，美國(guó)政府對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政治干預(yù)也可能削弱市場(chǎng)對(duì)美元的信任。這些因素都將導(dǎo)致美元走弱。</p><p>市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為，美元的突然走弱實(shí)際上釋放了美國(guó)政府的信號(hào)，這可能會(huì)迫使日本政府不得不修正現(xiàn)在推行的積極的財(cái)政政策。比如，高市政府很有可能會(huì)把在大選前提出的消費(fèi)稅臨時(shí)減稅的政策無(wú)限期拖延下去。同時(shí)，高市政府也難以繼續(xù)干擾日本央行的貨幣政策。</p><p>因此，突如其來的國(guó)際形勢(shì)的變化，實(shí)際上給日本央行繼續(xù)加息創(chuàng)造了良好的條件。參考這次公布的去年12月的日本央行貨幣決策會(huì)議紀(jì)要，日本央行或有可能加快加息的步伐。</p> 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